Baseline Analytics

Market risk assessment tools and tactical investment opportunities driven by curated financial insight

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Written by David Fabian of FMD Capital Management.     The current rise in interest rates has an eerily-similar feeling to the panic and frustration after the Fed’s surprise announcement to taper quantitative easing in 2013.  Just like then, the bond market is reacting more to the thought of a change in Fed policy and not the change itself.  Investors should always remember that the  markets are not logical, they are psychological.  So with the strong non-farm payroll numbers that were released this morning, there is renewed anticipation that the Fed will be forced to hike in October, instead of the first quarter of 2016.

 

Prime Technical Leaders

Prime Technical Leaders represent companies with impressive fundamental financial criteria and a technically-attractive entry point. Leaders are added as opportunities arise from our nightly screening of over 6,000 stocks through our MetaStock software.

Subscribers are presented with a cumulative list of leading stocks that have been filtered for technical and fundamental criteria, representing companies that are consistent with Baseline Analytics' sector and regional attractiveness vetting process.  Price Entry, Target and Stops are identified based on technical analysis.  Selections are timely (Date Added is noted to identify the date when the favorable setup was identified).  The Research link will open Google Finance for current news, pricing and charts.

Name Symbol & Chart Rationale Prime Fundamentals Research & Current Price Entry Initial Target Stop Date Added
California Amplifier CAMP Forming base following earnings-related surge Data

Research

19.75 21.50  18.60  6/20/15 
Radian Group RDN Valuation, technical strength Data 

Research

18.37  22.50  17.25  6/15/15 
Valero Energy Corp VLO Valuation, technical support Data

Research

57.75  61.50   54.50 6/05/15 
Microchip Technology Inc. MCHP Consolidating; closes over 50-day Data

Research

49.10 52.00 46.00 5/29/15
Legg Mason LM Beats revenue and EPS estimates; resumes uptrend Data

Research

54.75 58.00 52.75 5/01/15
Discovery Communications DISCA Technical bounce; attractive fundamentals Data 

Research

32.70  35.50  30.25  4/06/15 
LyondellBasell Industries LYB Close over 50-day; attractive value Data

Research

87.50 94.00 85.00 3/26/15
HON Industries HNI Breakout; nice fundamentals Data

Research

52.75 56.00 50.65 3/18/15 
Progressive Corp PGR Breakout on strong volume Data

Research

27.50 30.00 26.60 3/18/15
Siliconware Precision Industries SPIL Attractive valuation; growth, basing Data

Research

8.75 11.00 6.00 3/14/15
Planar Systems PLNR Settles back from price/volume surge Data

Research

6.20 9.00 4.40 3/4/15
Mylan Labs MYL Close above 50-day; solid fundamentals Data

Research

56.00 62.00 51.00 2/13/15
Fleetcor FLT Basing at 50-day moving average Data

Research

150.00 165.00 135.00 2/4/15 
RiteAid RAD High-volume surge above 50 day moving avgerage Data Research  7.25  9.00 6.50  12/26/14
Carters CRI Finds support at 50-day moving average Data Research  78.00  85.00 74.00  11/14/14 

 

Stock Wrapper Explores (Microsoft Excel Files)

 Baseline Analytics introduces searchable Excel files representing the results of proprietary screeners applied to MetaStock software. Click on the wrapper   icon in the table below to download the Excel report, which includes instructions to find timely opportunities.  

Wrapper Name Description Wrapper Link Date
Volume Surge Updated Volume Surge (stocks under accumulation or distribution); bullish trend and not overbought wrapper 7/05/2015
Volume Surge Find stocks under accumulation (or distribution), poised for breakout, or resumption of an uptrend. Instructions are included in the Excel file. wrapper 6/30/2015

Short Candidates

Short candidates represent over-valued stocks that are trading below a major moving average (i.e. 50-day or 200-day), have exhibited recent technical weakness, or have pushed toward resistance and may be prone to resume their downtrend.  Price Entry, Target and Stops are identified based on technical analysis.  Selections are timely (Date Added is noted to identify the date when the favorable setup was identified).  The Research link will open Google Finance for current news, pricing and charts.

Name Symbol & Chart Rationale Prime Fundamentals Research & Current Price Entry Initial Target Stop Date Added
Arctic Cat ACAT 50-day moving average resistance; deteriorating fundamentals and over-valued Data

Research

34.40 31.00  38.50  6/26/15 


 

Technical Trade Signals

Wrapper Name Description Wrapper Link Date
Bounce at Support Equities with attractive fundamentals that have bounced at support and trade in an uptrend (above their 200-day average) wrapper 6/05/15
Swing Trade Buys Scanning 6,000 NYSE and Nasdaq stocks for swing trade buy signals.  wrapper 6/03/15
Bullish Bounce Signals Scanning over 8,000 equities for reversal and/or short-term trade opportunities.  These stocks have bounced at major support, and often on high volume.  Based on the LCI Trading System. wrapper 5/15/15

 

 

June's Ex-Dividend Wrapper Reports

Wrapper Name Description Wrapper Link Date
Volume Accumulation Dividend-payers for the balance of June with recent volume upticks wrapper 6/05/15
Bullish Trend Dividend-payers trading higher than their 200-day moving average, and yielding 1% or more wrapper 6/02/15

 

 

Dividend Technical Leaders - Gems of the Month

Dividend Technical Leaders represent companies going Ex-Dividend in the upcoming weeks, as well as meeting technically-attractive criteria and favorable fundamentals.  This list is rotated each month as new Ex-Dividend opportunities arise.  Each week, Baseline Analytics identifies the leading Ex-Dividend stocks in this list to present in the table below: 

Name Symbol & Chart Rationale Prime Fundamentals Research Entry Initial Target Stop Ex-Dividend Date Yield
Dow Chemical DOW 3.3% yield; EV/EBITDA only 8.9 Data

Research

52.00

57.00

46.50 6/26  3.3%

 

The Daily WhiteBoard

Ideas on the fly subject to further analysis (we usually find them as we poke around headlines and run charts using our home-grown systems).  Typically, a stock will make the daily whiteboard based on the following criteria:

  • Compelling earnings announcement
  • Volume-driven gains
  • A value or growth stock at an attractive entry point
Symbol Rationale Date Added
DHI DR Horton Inc., bounce at support; favorable housing trends

6/12/15

DENN Denny's pops on higher volume; improving outlook for restaurant chain

6/5/15

MUR Murphy Oil settles at major support

5/21/15

AGU Impressive chart; looks headed to new highs

5/21/15

HBI Bounce at support; attractive entry point

5/14/15

NVDA Nvidia; pop on higher volume (cup with handle breakout)

5/1/15

ADI Analog Devices; attractvie entry at pullback from breakout 4/6/15
INTC Intel up 6.4% 3/27; talk of Altera acquisition 3/27/15
CAT High volume bounce; major support area 3/22/15
BABY Natus Medical; EPS estimate-beater; Zack's BUY rating; new high 3/21/15
AXGN AxoGen: speculative medical products showing strong volume activity 3/21/15
MOD Modine Manufaturing; compelling valuation; stock has lagged; small cap opportunity 3/19/15
NSP Insperity surges but remains an attractive value; consider on a pullback to 47-50 range 3/5/15

 

 

 

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